Terence Crawford and Errol Spence could fight three times and they probably wouldn’t come close to the $600 million-plus in revenue that Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao generated from the May 2, 2015, bout at the MGM Grand Garden in Las Vegas.
Likewise, they won’t get close to 4.6 million pay-per-view sales or a $72.2 million gate, even if their heated rivalry turns into a trilogy.
Crawford and Spence, though, have a few things going for them that should make their bout for the undisputed welterweight title — and potentially, pound-for-pound No. 1 status — more compelling than Mayweather-Pacquiao. Mayweather and Pacquiao were on the backstretches of their careers when they met in that historic match, which Mayweather won by scores of 116-112 twice and 118-110.
It was a Mayweather masterpiece, but it was hardly a compelling or entertaining fight as it likely would have been had they faced each other in 2010 when they first neared a deal to fight.
You’ll struggle, though, to find anyone who has followed the careers of Spence and Crawford who would not say enthusiastically that this matchup is going to be compelling in the ring and not just for business reasons and the money it generates.
Spence is the bigger man and he’s probably the harder hitter when it comes to one-punch power. He fights as if he’s going downhill, and he’s an expert at breaking down an opponent. Crawford may have the highest fight IQ of anyone since Mayweather. He’s both quick and fast, and he’s a mean and brutal finisher.
This has Fight of the Year written all over it.
Crawford is the favorite at BetMGM and has been since the fight was first made. There has been a lot of line movement, but Crawford is a -145 favorite Friday, with Spence at +120. The over-under is 11 full rounds, though over is the favorite at -225. Will go 12 full is -190. Crawford by decision is +175 and by KO is +225. Spence by decision is +260 and by KO is +550.
It has been a long time since two welterweights with perfect records met for the undisputed title. In 1999 in Las Vegas, in what was billed as “The Fight of the Millennium, Felix Trinidad (35-0, 31 KOs) faced Oscar De La Hoya (31-0, 25 KOs) for the undisputed title in the three-belt era. That fight, like Spence-Crawford, had a enticing style, but De La Hoya, after fighting well early, inexplicably opted to circle the ring, stay away from Trinidad and not fight much in the second half of the bout. It turned into a huge disappointment.
There seems to be little chance of that occurring in Spence-Crawford given the approaches they usually take. Spence is confident because of years of drilling the fundamentals he has received from trainer Derrick James. Those years of work have made Spence one of the game’s most fundamentally sound fighters. Coupled with his physical gifts, he has vaulted to the top of his profession.
“He’s going to find out that my skills are superior,” Spence said. “He’s talented, but when we talk about what my coach teaches, he’s going to see that I have great offense, defense and stamina. It’s more than just talent.”
Perhaps Crawford’s biggest advantage is his fight IQ. He’s like a trainer himself, and he recognizes as quickly as anyone in the game when he needs to adjust and he does it on the fly. In a fight like this that will be contested on such even terms, the ability to adjust mid-round and perhaps win a round he was on the way to losing could be critical.
Composure is also going to be critical because in many of these huge unification bouts over the years, one of the fighters made the mistake of fighting his opponent’s fight. It happened in both fights between Alexis Arguello and Aaron Pryor, and in the 1980 welterweight title bout between Sugar Ray Leonard and Roberto Duran.
Pryor and Duran were huge punchers who liked to work hard on the inside. Arguello and Leonard were skilled boxers who were extremely tough, but were best when working off the jab, circling and keeping the opponent at a distance.
Crawford is so strong-willed that it’s hard to see him making that mistake, and that may be his advantage in this fight.
“He’s going to find out the same thing that everyone else finds out,” Crawford said of Spence. “He’s going to say that on TV I look one way, but in the ring, he’s going to be seeing three of me. They say he’s the big bad wolf, but come fight night, we’re going to find out if he’s all that he says he is. He’s going to have to show me.
“Everything about me is better than Errol. When you look at what I do in the ring, it’s better than what he does. Come fight night, I’m going to prove every doubter wrong. I’m going to show that I’m the best fighter in the world.”
Freddie Roach, who has won the Boxing Writers Association of America’s Trainer of the Year award a record seven times, agrees with Crawford.
It’s a close fight, no doubt, but he said Crawford’s sharp mind differentiates him from other elite fighters.
“In my mind, Crawford is the best fighter in the game and has been for several years,” Roach said. “In this fight, I give the edge to Crawford because he is the more complete fighter. I am so impressed by his strategy and well-balanced style of fighting. I can tell he thinks out the game plan thoroughly well in advance of facing each opponent by the way he warms up in the dressing room. He is not just warming up, he is working on his game plan. Every punch in that dressing room is a piece of his strategy. Inside the ring, he executes his game plan flawlessly. By the end of Round 2, Crawford has figured out his opponent. I can see it. After that, Crawford is close to invincible. I have never seen any fighter switch from orthodox to southpaw so seamlessly. And that is just one part of his arsenal.”
But to win, I have to go with Crawford. I’ve believed Crawford has had what it takes to defeat Spence ever since they both were established at welterweight. So I’ll lay the -145 and take Crawford to win in an epic battle with lots of ebb and flow and momentum changes.
Unlike after Mayweather-Pacquiao, fans will leave the arena thrilled Saturday. The fighters won’t make nearly as much money, but they sure will provide a return on the investment for either tickets or pay-per-views.
