England will never win anything with that defence, we opined. The verdict was strong – the backline was weak. Those up front would do the heavy lifting and they’d be carrying their team-mates in behind.
A fortnight into the tournament and England’s defence has the lowest XG against – 1.15 – after three matches. They have conceded just once.
While all the noise has been about a frontline which has flopped, those at the back have stood firm and have quietly gone about their business. Some square pegs, maybe, but so far, the opposition have found no holes.
There have been one or two scary moments, but more so because of mistakes in midfield. Marc Guehi has been England’s best defender with Kieran Trippier a close second, and that pair were supposed to represent the fragility.
Only Gareth Southgate’s side and Spain have not conceded a goal from inside the penalty area, and the stats prove they are restricting teams to efforts from distance.
Despite pre-tournament concerns, England’s defence has so far proven more than capable in Germany
Marc Guehi has done an excellent job stepping in to partner John Stones in Harry Maguire’s absence
Their XG per shot is 0.04. What does that tell us? When the opposition take aim, the chances are they aren’t going to score. Of all the goalkeepers who have played every minute here, Jordan Pickford has faced the lowest Expected Goals on Target. He is, therefore, well protected.
History suggests tournaments are won by teams with the best defence. Look no further than the last major finals in Germany, when Italy lifted the World Cup in 2006 by conceding just twice, and one of those was a Zinedine Zidane penalty in the final. Italy captain Fabio Cannavaro won a Ballon d’Or on the back of that.
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The caveat, of course, is that England’s defence, so far, has not had to do a great deal of defending. That is supported by none of their players featuring in the top 10 for tackles, interceptions, blocks or clearances. So perhaps Guehi is right when he deflects praise by insisting the team defend as a collective, as he did when meeting with reporters in Blankenhain yesterday.
After every game, he revealed, England’s analysts provide feedback on all of the above numbers, and Guehi says it is an ‘incentive’ to protect their position at the top of almost every defensive metric.
When the Crystal Palace centre-back was reminded of the pre-tournament doubt, he responded with a calmness and wit reflective of his performance on the pitch. ‘The defence is doing quite well at the moment,’ he said.
Guehi is right, but where they aren’t doing so well is at the other end of the park. If the team defend as a collective, there is also responsibility on the likes of Guehi and John Stones to contribute in attack, especially from set-pieces.
England’s XG from deadballs is the second lowest of all 32 teams, at just 0.19. That translates as one goal every 16 matches from a set-piece, a shocking return considering the quality of delivery from Kieran Trippier, Phil Foden and others.
However, a lack of attacking impetus could prove costly for Gareth Southgate’s side in the knockout stages
Guehi may have replaced Harry Maguire at the back, but he does not carry the same threat up top. Maguire would invariably win the first ball from corners and free-kicks, and his chaos factor has been absent in recent matches. When facing teams with a low block who aim to frustrate, a set-piece goal is often the best shortcut to victory. It is, clearly, an area to work on.
But the foundations of a tournament team have nonetheless been laid. To our surprise, the pillars of strength have been found in defence.
