The truth about Arsenal's transfer window: The four forwards they targeted, what really happened with Ollie Watkins and the two big-money stars most likely to sign this summer

Now the dust has settled from Arsenal’s unsuccessful efforts to sign a new forward in January, Mail Sport can provide some rationale.

Some supporters won’t want to hear it. Wednesday night’s Carabao Cup semi-final exit to Newcastle will serve only to strengthen their view the market was an unmitigated disaster. 

They’ll explain that what follows here is propaganda. That isn’t the case here, but accuse away.

This isn’t meant as a defence of Arsenal’s window – but rather an explanation as to why it transpired as it did.

The first point that should be made clear is that Arsenal’s intention was always to be active.

Ultimately that activity was futile. How damaging that failure is in terms of this season, we won’t know until May – or until Kai Havertz suffers an injury.

A hamstring strain suffered by Gabriel Martinelli at St James’ Park on Wednesday another blow that leaves the club’s forward options worryingly exposed.

But Arsenal tried. There was an internal exploration, for instance, regarding Red Bull Leipzig striker Benjamin Sesko.

A long-term target of the club, if an opportunity to sign a player the club initially moved to land last summer presented itself in January then Arsenal were prepared to grasp it.

But crucially, Red Bull were not prepared to sell Sesko in January, a stance communicated to Arsenal.

You could argue they should have taken a heavy handed approach. But doing so would have future consequences towards a potential move for a player who could easily emerge as Arsenal’s most realistic striker target of the summer.

The serious knee injury suffered by Gabriel Jesus towards the start of January sharpened Arsenal’s focus.

In an ideal world, Arsenal wanted Jesus to play out the season. There was logic to that viewpoint; following a difficult start Jesus had scored six goals in seven matches before his season prematurely ended against Manchester United on January 12.

He was hitting form before disaster struck, but it was only when his ACL injury was confirmed did Arsenal narrow their January business to the recruitment of a striker.

Potential moves for Bayern Munich’s Mathys Tel and AC Milan striker Alvaro Morata were discussed internally, although the club fell short of making offers amid a feeling that neither would provide the level of impact Mikel Arteta’s team required.

Time will tell whether that was the right call, particularly regarding Tel given he has joined arch-rivals Tottenham.

Arsenal found that the very best players simply weren’t available in January, where prices are traditionally inflated and clubs aren’t open to letting their key assets leave.

Those prohibitive conditions aren’t exclusive to Arsenal. Ask Manchester United. Ask Chelsea.

Arsenal could have signed someone for the sake of it; to add depth rather than quality.

But where is the long-term strategy in that?

The emergence of Myles Lewis-Skelly and Ethan Nwaneri is a case in point, here.

Both academy players were predicted to play a greater first-team role this season. 

Their rapid rise has proved the club’s evaluation of both teenagers accurate. 

Talent identification is a concept Arsenal’s recruitment team pride themselves on; they have had more hits than misses in recent seasons.

If certain available players weren’t deemed at a high enough level to improve a forward line that scored 91 goals last season, then – perhaps – frustrated Gooners should have a little more faith.

As Mail Sport exclusively revealed last week, Arsenal did make an offer for Ollie Watkins, another long-standing target.

The external view of that particular bid, that was rejected by Villa, was that it smacked of panic heading into the final few days of the window.

However, it is our understanding that Arsenal were offered encouragement during the closing stages of the window that Villa were open to selling Watkins or Jhon Duran ahead of the deadline as the Midlands club looked to alleviate some of the pressures created by the Premier League’s profit and sustainability regulations.

The fact, though, Villa had already lined-up a huge offer for Duran from Saudi Arabia, coupled with the realisation that the gap in valuations for Watkins was too wide meant a deal never really got off the ground.

Watkins was largely a market opportunity that arose unexpectedly late in the window.

It was an opportunity Arsenal chose to move on, but even then the size of their offer was shaped by analytics. 

Watkins’ age, attacking stats, defensive output among other numerical pointers are all factored in by Arsenal when submitting offers for players.

Arsenal are disciplined in that regard, though some supporters will wish they were more impulsive.

The role of interim sporting director Jason Ayto provided an intriguing backdrop to Arsenal’s January movements.

Assuming the role following Edu’s departure towards the end of 2024, Ayto is effectively sitting an on-the-job interview for the permanent position.

With supporters desperate for a signing, Ayto could easily have made himself an instant hero by sanctioning moves for either Tel or Morata – who both would have given serious consideration to joining Arsenal.

Who knows, perhaps Ayto has manoeuvred himself out of contention for the full-time position amid the hysteria created by the club’s failure to land a forward.

But talk to those whose opinions matter at the Emirates and they’ll tell you Ayto’s considered approach has impressed and is one that’s aligned with the club’s long-term strategy.

Take the late loan capture of Raheem Sterling during the summer window, for example. 

The move triggered frenzied celebrations from supporters on social media. The reality of that transfer, however, has proved rather uninspiring.

Ayto could have given the green light for a similar deal last month in search of a short-cut.

But even the most ardent of detractors will agree that such an approach would serve only to heighten Ayto’s external popularity and not the club’s long-term interests.

Having spent nearly a decade at Arsenal, Ayto has experienced the lows – but also played an increased role in elevating the club to where it is today. He has seen what works, and what doesn’t.

Whether his diligence to Arsenal’s ‘process’ in January has helped or hindered his job chances remains to be seen.

Nevertheless, Ayto is understood to have improved his standing among those behind the scenes at the Emirates since his interim appointment.

With all that said, Arsenal’s quiet January should result in a summer of hefty spending.

The foundations are in place but there is an understanding the next window will be ‘critical’ towards firing the club towards the top of European football.

That’s the crux, here. The ambition isn’t to win one Premier League title. They want multiple. 

They want to win the Champions League for the first time. And win it again. To establish a legacy.

To achieve that goal requires investment. Having kept their finances intact in January, there will be a big spend ahead of next season. The pressure to deliver from fans will be monumental.

Martin Zubimendi, who has a £52million release clause, looks certain to arrive from Real Sociedad as Arsenal prepare for the expected midfield departures of Jorginho and Thomas Partey, who are both out of contract in the summer.

They will explore a move for a versatile attacker, too, with Athletic Bilbao winger Nico Williams and Wolves attacker Matheus Cunha among the players admired.

But the big money will be spent on a new centre-forward. It is no secret the dream ticket is Newcastle striker Alexander Isak.

Given the cost, believed to be in-excess of £120million, a successful swoop for the Sweden striker appears implausible.

But, at the very least, Arsenal will explore its validity. Sesko appears to be Arsenal’s best chance of landing the centre forward supporters so keenly crave. 

It is understood the forward has a new release clause in his contract that becomes active this summer. His previous buy-out price was around £55m.

Of course, some fans will say they have heard it all before. You’d understand their reservations.

But there is a burgeoning sense at Emirates that they are gearing up for an unprecedented summer.

Only then will we discover the true upshot of Arsenal’s January inactivity.

Cunha release clause revealed 

Wolves forward Matheus Cunha’s new release clause is worth £62million, Mail Sport can reveal.

We can also disclose that there are no restrictions on which clubs can activate the buy-out when it becomes valid this summer.

Cunha, who was a January target for a number of Premier League clubs during the January window, signed a new four-and-a-half year contract last weekend to end immediate speculation over his future.

His new deal, however, does include a release clause value north of £60million,

Intriguingly, the clause is also open to any club to activate.

Such stipulations are often only applicable for certain clubs; for instance some players have release clauses that can only be activated by teams in the Champions League.

However that is not the case with Cunha’s clause, which will interest a host of the player’s suitors.

Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottenham, Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest are among the clubs to have monitored the Brazil international.

Guehi set for summer decision

Crystal Palace captain Marc Guehi is keeping an open mind over his next destination ahead of the summer transfer window.

Tottenham failed with a late offer, worth up to £70million, to prize the England international away from Selhurst Park during the final 48 hours of the transfer window.

Guehi will not make any decision regarding his future until the summer as he focuses on finishing the season strongly at Palace.

He will also be mindful that having established himself as one of England’s two first choice centre-backs at Euro 2024, he will need to impress a new national team head coach in Thomas Tuchel.

Guehi enters the final 12 months of his deal this summer and there is no real prospect of the defender signing a new deal.

With that in mind a number of clubs are already jostling for position to strike for Guehi this summer.

Spurs will revisit their long-term interest, while Chelsea and Newcastle are also monitoring closely.

Intriguingly, a number of European teams are also circling as they recognise a potential market opportunity to sign a proven international defender for a lower fee than usual given his contractual situation.

However, Guehi will put on hold any decision over his future until the summer as he focuses on the rest of the rest of the campaign.

Spurs starlet sparking interest 

Juventus and AC Milan are taking an interest in Tottenham’s bright academy prospect Ellis Lehane.

The 18-year-old striker was subject of an offer from Lecce during the closing stages of transfer window, but the bid was rejected by Tottenham.

The striker has scored seven goals in 14 appearances for the Under-18s this season and his performances have attracting admiring glances from across Europe.

Tottenham view the teenager as key part of there future plans, but it remains to be seen if they can hold on to their prospect amid growing interest.

David Gill is set to stand down from his role on UEFA’s executive committee at the end of the season.

The former Manchester United chief has been in position at European football’s top table since 2013 but is not expected to stand for re-election.

Gill, who has been a powerhouse in football circles for approaching three decades, is in his 12th year in office which, since 2017, is the maximum term for incoming members.

However, following the clarification of UEFA statutes last year, Gill would be eligible for re-election.

it is understood, though, that the 67-year-old wants to set an example and step aside given the the rules over the maximum term that was introduced six years ago.

Blues looking ahead to summer 

Chelsea retain an interest in midfielders Nico O’Reilly and Dario Essugo heading into the summer window.

Manchester City teenager O’Reilly and Sporting Lisbon youngster Essugo were both subject of concrete interest from the Stamford Bridge club ahead of Monday’s transfer deadline.

In the end, Chelsea signed midfielder Mathis Amougou from St Etienne, partly because Essugo, currently on loan at Las Palmas, has already played for two clubs this season.

Nevertheless, Essugo and O’Reilly, both 19, will remain on Chelsea’s radar heading into the summer market.

Meanwhile, the club’s right-back Malo Gusto has joined leading agency Wasserman.

No offers for Zinchenko 

Arsenal did not receive any formal permanent offers for Oleksandr Zinchenko during the January window.

Atletico Madrid and Borussia Dortmund both showed a level of interest in the Ukraine left-back, but preferred to loan the Gunners star.

Regardless, Mail Sport understands neither club reached out to Arsenal in an official capacity during the window.

Arsenal were only interested in sanctioning a permanent deal for Zinchenko, who is set to available for transfer in the summer.

Wilder in a tricky spot 

Sheffield United boss Chris Wilder could find himself in a tough spot with his match-day squad selections for the rest of the season after the club took their player loan tally to six in January.

After Harry Soutar returned to parent club Leicester, the temporary arrivals of Rob Holding, Hamza Choudhury, Ben Brerton Diaz and Harry Diaz have taken the Blades’ loan number to six.

However, EFL rules only allow clubs to name five own players in a match-day squad which leaves Wilder facing a tricky situation.