This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell’s Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
Blake Snell has quite an opportunity to solidify his Cy Young Award case over the next week.
Already, the Padres left-hander is a frontrunner for the award — perhaps the frontrunner. If ever there were a time for a statement, consider his next two starts:
Snell takes the ball Friday in Houston against the red-hot Astros. Then, presuming the Padres stay on turn in their rotation, he’ll get the ball Wednesday at Dodger Stadium.
“I can’t wait,” Snell said earlier this week. “I love playing the best teams. … I love the challenge because I can figure out how good I am.”
Cy Young Award voters might approach these starts the same way. Sure, there are other strong contenders. But if Snell can navigate those two opponents the way he’s dominated the sport for the past four months, it’s his award to lose.
Already, Snell leads the Majors with a 2.50 ERA, aiming to be the first Padre to win an ERA title since Jake Peavy in 2007. (Also the last time a Padre won the Cy Young Award.) Snell is also easily in first place in RA9-WAR — the version of pitcher WAR centered exclusively on the runs a pitcher allowed. For my money, that’s the number that best judges how well a pitcher has performed, because, put simply, it’s a pitcher’s job to prevent runs. Snell is also tops in the NL in batting average and OPS against. He ranks second in strikeouts and first in hits/9.
“His body of work now for months has been pretty extreme,” said Padres manager Bob Melvin. “It seems dominant every time he goes out on the mound. … I haven’t seen some of these other guys as much. But watching games every day, I don’t know that I’ve seen better.”
The arguments against Snell are largely theoretical, and they center on his walks. Snell also leads the Majors in those. His peripheral numbers indicate he should be allowing more runs because he walks so many hitters.
The Padres laugh at that notion. Literally. They aren’t encouraging the walks. But they don’t mind them. Pitching coach Ruben Niebla noticed that Snell often grew frustrated with his walks and sometimes allowed them to impact his outings. So the messaging changed.
“I’ve got a guy here that has stuff,” Niebla said. “The message is: Go get outs. It’s not: Don’t walk people. Walks are part of the game, and you have the stuff to be able to pitch through walks. We’re not going to talk about walks. We actually laugh about walks.”
Snell has espoused a belief in “good walks” and “bad walks.” He’s comfortable walking certain hitters — whether because of where he is in the batting order or the swings hitters take. That’s not advisable for most pitchers. But Snell isn’t most pitchers.
There’s no pitcher more adept at escaping trouble. Sure, Snell walks hitters. But those walks generally don’t score, because he doesn’t allow hits. He doesn’t even allow contact. Only 12.8 percent of Snell’s pitches are put in play, the lowest in the Majors.
“He’s not giving in, letting a guy hit a sac fly to keep the lineup moving,” Niebla said. “He’s like: ‘I’m going to punch this guy out, and I’m not going to let anyone score.’”
And that’s pretty much what he’s done. Snell has allowed zero or one run in 14 of his last 19 outings, a stretch since May in which he’s posted a 1.31 ERA.
“He’s been unbelievable,” said Xander Bogaerts. “That is a long stretch of dominance he’s been on. Every time, you can write it down on paper that he pitches six innings and doesn’t allow a run. Maybe one if they’re lucky.”
After winning the 2018 Cy Young Award with Tampa Bay, Snell is trying to join an exclusive club of pitchers to win one in both leagues. The six who have done so: Gaylord Perry, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Roy Halladay and Max Scherzer.
Snell has mostly deflected questions about individual awards. But he recently acknowledged the obvious: Yes, a second Cy Young Award would be awfully meaningful.
“Obviously I’m going to chase that,” Snell said. “Getting to the playoffs would mean a lot, first. But yeah, the Cy Young is always the goal for everyone. You want to be the best pitcher you can be. That award kind of clarifies that. I’m chasing that, because I’m chasing greatness.”
Snell will become a free agent after the season, and, well, let’s just say that pitchers who have won multiple Cy Young Awards typically do well on the open market. After two seasons in San Diego in which Snell struggled early before dominating the second half, he finally put everything together.
That’s largely because Snell harnessed his changeup. It was always his fourth weapon. But this spring, Snell set out with the intention of reincorporating his changeup. The way Niebla sees it, that challenge invigorated him.
“It relaxed Blake to the point where he’s like, ‘I have something to work on,’” Niebla said. “In that work, it became: ‘I don’t have to be perfect with these other three pitches.’ It became a fun project for him, and it alleviated some of his stress.”
Sure enough, Snell’s changeup is elite again. Opponents are hitting .188 against it this year. Then again, they’re hitting .134 against his slider and .085 against his curve. Which gets to the crux of Niebla’s case for Snell to win the Cy Young Award.
“Do hitters want to face Blake Snell? No, they don’t,” Niebla said. “It’s a four-pitch mix. … For me, that’s what makes Blake the best pitcher in baseball. It’s: ‘How does that guy feel in the box?’”
Snell likely has five more starts to solidify his argument for the Cy Young Award. The next two come under the bright lights at the homes of division leaders. He’ll also have to pitch without Gary Sánchez behind the plate after Sánchez fractured his right wrist on Wednesday. That duo worked expertly together, and it’s no coincidence that Snell’s Cy Young Award push essentially began when Sánchez arrived in May.
In any case, Snell isn’t getting too far ahead of himself.
“I haven’t done it yet,” Snell said. “Once I finish the season, I’ll look at it for what it is. But I’m still on the journey. I’m still chasing my best version of me.”
