We’re a few weeks into the offseason, and a lot has changed since we last checked in with the NBA Power Rankings world.
We’ve had a champion crowned. We’ve had LeBron James tease us with the idea of retirement before telling us it’s our lucky day because he’ll keep playing. We’ve had James Harden and Damian Lillard request trades. We’ve seen a lot of money spent in the early days of the new collective bargaining agreement, which is supposed to make reckless spending a lot more compromising for future plans. Not to mention, Victor Wembanyama is finally upon us!
So let’s check in with some updated Power Rankings before we get out of July. We’re still waiting on some major trades to happen, but we can assess each team’s big moves and ask a pressing question for each franchise as we look ahead to next season and beyond. There will be some transactions missing for each team. No offense, but some of the two-way guys and second-round picks will get slighted. Sometimes even the Power Rankings need a little bit of brevity.
Reminder: The Power Rankings don’t just rank the 30 teams. We divide these teams into tiers, into and out of which any of the teams can move. We have the tiers in the Power Rankings broken into six categories:
- Tank Adjacent So Far — No clear-cut prospect to tank for yet, but these teams might lose competitive edge.
- Edge of Competition — Any of these teams could really surprise some people this season.
- Play-In Battleground — That Play-In doesn’t look like death for your season.
- Playoff Hopefuls — This means these teams should expect to make the top-six in their respective conferences.
- On the brink of contention — A piece away or some luck from us believing they can win the title.
- Contenders — They are contending for the championship, barring a massive injury.
As always, I am sure we will all agree on the flawless placement of all 30 teams, especially your favorite team.
Here’s how the Power Rankings work:
- It’s up to my discretion how the rankings shake out. Some teams will be hit extra hard in the short term. Others will be given the benefit of the doubt for the long term. Yes, it is entirely subjective.
- If I have a team ahead of another team, there’s no reason to ask why they’re ranked above the team you like. The answer is pretty simple: I think that team is set up better for success.
- Yes, I watch the games. And yes, I watch your favorite team.
- This is supposed to be fun, so let’s have fun with it.
With all that said, let’s dive into the offseason version of The Athletic’s NBA Power Rankings. (Previous rankings in parenthesis are from our end-of-regular-season edition.)
Tier 1: The Contenders
Key additions (including re-signs):
Key subtractions:
Pressing question: Do they have enough to repeat as champs?
As much as the Nuggets love Brown and celebrated his contributions, they still have everything they need to compete for a back-to-back run. That’s right: They still have Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray. I’m a big Justin Holiday fan and think he can be a nice replacement for Brown. The rookies they’re bringing in might actually be able to play a role in their first year. But think about how little they received offensively from Michael Porter Jr. and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in the NBA Finals. This team still has more than enough to be champs again.
GO DEEPER
NBA notes: Pacers praise Bruce Brown, Adam Silver speaks and more
Key additions (including re-signs):
Key subtractions:
Pressing question: Can the Bucks stay healthy enough to get back to the NBA Finals?
It’s hard to predict where the coaching change from Budenholzer to Griffin is going to land the Bucks. They were a title contending team with Budenholzer and the organization is hoping Griffin can avoid playoff collapses. But the change itself probably won’t alter this team’s ceiling much, as they won a title with Bud.
It’s going to be about the health. Two years ago, they can say that was the difference in their loss to Boston. It was probably a factor with the loss to Miami this past season because of Giannis Antetokounmpo’s brief absence, but mostly, this team just looked disjointed from all the time Middleton lost during the regular season. They’re deeper now and need that depth to help them stay cohesive through the bumps and bruises so they’re ready for the playoff run.
Key additions (including re-signs):
Key subtractions:
Pressing question: Was Poole the main problem last season?
I’m of the belief Poole was the issue with this team last season, though that doesn’t mean he was the main cause of that issue. This team never came together after the Draymond Green punch and the subsequent leak of the video. From there, it was just awkward, and it eventually left the Warriors incapable of truly defending their title. I don’t know if Paul and his opposition to wanting to come off the bench will fix that, but having Poole gone should improve morale. The Warriors don’t have many more years of contending with this group. We’ll find out just how much the Poole subtraction will fix things.
GO DEEPER
What does veteran Dario Šarić bring to the Warriors?
Key additions (including re-signs):
Key subtractions:
Pressing question: What is life like without Marcus Smart?
When the Celtics couldn’t quite find their way two years ago, it was Smart who took the reins on the court and in the locker room to help lead this team. And the results were great. Jayson Tatum evolved, Jaylen Brown got better and the team made the NBA Finals. They got deeper, they got better and then were one of the best teams in the league last season. They just fell apart against Miami and couldn’t quite complete the historic comeback.
I’m not sure what the leadership looks like now without Smart. The Porziņģis addition has some intrigue, but it’s also kind of weird. Is Derrick White going to be that guy to help keep things together? Or do Tatum and/or Brown step up with more vocal leadership in Smart’s absence? Boston didn’t want to give Smart up, but now that he’s gone, the Celtics have to fill that void.
Key additions (including re-signs):
Key subtractions:
Pressing question: Will a super team contend in this new CBA era?
Despite the CBA being designed to prevent super teams, the Suns went out and got their third star in Bradley Beal. Then, they did a solid job of filling out the supporting cast, although they still don’t have any answers for perimeter defense or guarding someone like Nikola Jokić. Luckily, nobody else seems to either, so the Suns aren’t behind the eight ball on that. The Suns believe a solid team defense approach under Vogel with the firepower of their big three is going to be enough to win. Super teams have struggled lately, but they certainly can work. The Suns just have to hope the offense is so overwhelming in the postseason that they feel how Denver felt against them in May.
Tier 2: Brink of Contention
Key additions (including re-signs):
Key subtractions:
Pressing question: Were the final tw0 and a half months of last season a sign of things to come?
After the trade deadline, the Lakers were a completely different team. We saw that in their defense. We saw that in them surviving a big stretch of games without LeBron James. We saw that in their march to eventually being swept in the conference finals. The Lakers vastly improved on the fly.
How does that carry over to this season? They made a lot of smart, small moves this summer. Everything is still held together by Anthony Davis being on the court and whether LeBron can continue to be a dominant force. If either of those things slip, we’ll see regression. If they don’t, maybe this team really is worth talking about on every sports show every day.
7. Miami Heat (14)
Key additions (including re-signs):
Key subtractions:
Pressing question: Is Damian Lillard coming to town to put them over the top again?
That’s the $60-million-per-season question. Lillard wants to go to Miami, and the Heat want him there. Everybody is waiting to see if the Blazers blink on this game of chicken. If the Heat do end up with Lillard, they have to feel great about their chances of getting back to the NBA Finals. They struggled to score consistently and Lillard cures a lot of that. If Lillard doesn’t end up going to South Beach, then what? Is the return of Tyler Herro going to change their title fortunes? Or will we see the Heat regress into more inconsistency with the hopes of the postseason bringing out the best in them?
GO DEEPER
Aldridge: If you thought player empowerment was on the wane, grab a chair; Dame Time on the clock
Tier 3: Playoff Hopefuls
Key additions (including re-signs):
Key subtractions:
Pressing question: How much can the Kings improve from last season?
The Kings didn’t panic or see the need for big tweaks following last season’s success. They kept everything together, brought in Vezenkov as another weapon and are letting continuity be their biggest strength. That’s what they should do, but I’m still curious how they evolve as a defensive team. That’s what it will take to see them march deeper into the playoffs. Sometimes, continuing to build chemistry can accomplish that, and Mike Brown is the right teacher for it. I just don’t think the personnel is that suited for defending, so it will have to be the effort and focus of the players who couldn’t defend last season. But the future looks very bright in Sacramento for the first time in a long time.
Key additions (including re-signs):
Key subtractions:
Pressing question: Have we hit a wall with Donovan Mitchell teams?
I like the Cavs’ offseason. Strus can be the 3-and-D wing they were desperately missing, and Niang gives them a good shooter off the bench. They still have a great core with a ton of talent. But we keep seeing a pattern with Mitchell’s teams when they get to the playoffs. They just come up short in ways where he could have been better, and things look so disjointed as they lose. Mitchell has to make better decisions in clutch moments in the postseason, and maybe Darius Garland needs the ball more.
This worry also could become moot with the ascension of Evan Mobley. They need him to dominate a team like New York in the playoffs to show they’ve evolved. But with the volume of offense Mitchell is responsible for, he has to be a better leader on the court with his decision-making to see progress. Rudy Gobert is no longer around to blame.
Key additions (including re-signs):
Key subtractions:
Pressing question: Will Ja Morant stay on the court when he’s back and lead this team?
I love this Memphis team, and while losing Jones hurts, bringing Smart into the mix could provide the leadership needed to right all the wrongs. The Grizzlies often have health or availability issues, and they’ll start the season without Ja Morant for at least 25 games. Once Morant is back from his suspension, will he have the focus and maturity to make sure he’s with them the rest of the season? We know how special he is when he plays. The Grizzlies, with a focused and present Morant, could shake up the West quite a bit.
Desmond Bane and Ja Morant (Petre Thomas / USA Today)
Key additions (including re-signs):
Key subtractions:
Pressing question: Is James Harden going to arrive before the trade deadline?
Harden wants to be a Clipper, which is good news for LA. Teaming him with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George sounds great on paper. But everything with the Clippers sounds great on paper. Seeing if it can even exist on the court? That’s often the problem.
The Clippers should be a top-five team with their talent, but we rarely see that available enough to feel confident in them contending. If Harden gets there in-season, can they figure out the balance on the fly? Or do they need to find a way to get this deal done before training camp so they have time to adjust?
12. Philadelphia 76ers (5)
Key additions (including re-signs):
Key subtractions:
Pressing question: Does Daryl Morey have a pivot to make this team a serious contender?
Harden wants out, and Joel Embiid made enough of a vague statement regarding his future place of work that the Sixers can’t exactly ignore it and pretend it’s meaningless, even if it ends up being so. This team crapped the bed once again. We don’t know if they’ll actually trade Harden or if Morey will be stubborn again. We know they’re not mentally tough enough to compete with the top of the East in the postseason, unless Nurse can unlock something Rivers couldn’t. Every bit of positivity about this team’s future hinges on what a Harden deal brings – if it brings them anything or if it even happens.
Tier 4: Play-In Battleground
Key additions (including re-signs):
Key subtractions:
Pressing question: What’s the next evolution for this Knicks team?
The Knicks went into this offseason and decided they’re pretty much good where they are. They had a fun first-round destruction of the Cavs before they got smacked by Miami. They believe Jalen Brunson is their star and Julius Randle can be his No. 2. I’m just not certain their ceiling actually goes beyond what we saw last season. They have depth and an identity, which is more than you can say for most teams. I just wonder if this squad is capable of evolving further or if they’re just waiting for a disgruntled star to become available. We don’t hear a lot about the Knicks pursuing the big guns. Maybe we should again.
GO DEEPER
Katz: Embiid to the Knicks? Why patience remains the priority in New York
14. Minnesota Timberwolves (16)
Key additions (including re-signs):
Key subtractions:
Pressing question: Can the Wolves stay on the court to figure out if this can work?
When the Wolves had Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns and Gobert together, the results were mixed at best. The team was 13-13 in those games – the offense was horrendous and the defense was spectacular with those three on the court. The Wolves just didn’t have a lot of chances to have the full squad together because of injuries. Did they gather enough evidence to be certain this could work beyond a first-round playoff appearance? Gobert certainly had a positive impact on their defense, but he and Towns both have clear flaws. We need to see at least 50-60 games of those two together to gauge what the ceiling could be for the two-big lineup. Edwards, though, is a legitimate superstar.
15. Oklahoma City Thunder (18)
Key additions (including re-signs):
Key subtractions:
Pressing question: Will progress be linear with this Thunder team?
Sam Presti and company finally allowed this group to continue to compete throughout an entire season, and they looked like they have a tangible, bright future, not just a theoretical one. What does that look like going into this season? The West is going to be deep and highly competitive. OKC isn’t a lock to even make the Play-In Tournament, but the Thunder are finally adding Chet Holmgren to the mix. They do have a lot of depth, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the real deal. They’re missing an interior presence, so a delayed rookie season for Holmgren in which he can give them rebounding and rim protection could be massive. We’ll see if that gives them another step forward.
Key additions (including re-signs):
Key subtractions:
- Garrett Temple (waived)
- Josh Richardson (Miami)
- Jaxson Hayes (Lakers)
Pressing question: Can you ever believe in this team without Zion Williamson as a certainty?
Another hopeful season for the Pelicans rests on the shoulders and availability of Williamson. He’s had a … tumultuous offseason, to say the least. You can do your own research to figure out part of that, but this offseason was the first time we’ve seen some credible reporting about the idea of the team maybe moving on from him. Williamson ended up staying, but it should hopefully motivate him further to be in better conditioning. This is a deep, talented team, but the Pels are nothing more than Play-In level without Zion around.
17. Dallas Mavericks (24)
Key additions (including re-signs):
Key subtractions:
- Justin Holiday (Denver)
- Dāvis Bertāns (Oklahoma City)
- Reggie Bullock (San Antonio)
Pressing question: Will the Kyrie and Luka dynamic be enough to get this team to the postseason?
I like a lot of what the Mavs have done this summer. They brought in depth and interior presences for now and the future, and also made sure they have plenty of shooting around the Luka Dončić-Kyrie Irving pairing. But ultimately, this will all hinge on two things. 1) Dončić has to be in good enough shape to do what he does on offense and give a couple extra seconds of effort on defense. 2) Irving has to stay on the court and be available. Without those two things, this supporting cast likely isn’t enough. It’s worth noting this team was only 5-11 with those two together, but they also had a historic-level offense. Maybe these moves for depth solve part of this equation.
Key additions (including re-signs):
Key subtractions:
Pressing question: With John Collins finally gone, how do the Hawks find the next gear they need?
It has to be all Quin Snyder’s coaching and his ability to form a trust and partnership with Trae Young, right? Young has such a weird reputation. It seems like he was deemed overrated to the point that now he could be underrated? His leadership needs to grow, and the Hawks need stability and focus. Young also needs help in getting some consistency from the roster around him. This does not feel like a team that made the conference finals a couple years ago. Maybe Snyder can help them figure out how to be consistent on defense, and then their potent offense becomes a pain to compete against again.
Tier 5: Edge of Competition
Key additions (including re-signs):
Key subtractions:
- Rudy Gay (Oklahoma City)
- Vernon Carey Jr. (waived)
- Damion Jones (Cleveland)
Pressing question: If the Jazz aren’t going to tank, what are they capable of doing?
The Jazz refused to tank last season, and they still ended up with a great haul in the draft. Now, with nobody like Wembanyama in sight as a draft prospect, there’s no need for them tank. They can just wait for their treasure chest of draft picks to benefit them. Acquiring Collins was a weird addition, but he’s someone they’ve been eyeing for a while and it ensures Lauri Markkanen stays at the three. This team’s competitiveness waned in the final weeks of the season, but they have more than enough talent and depth to ruin someone’s season as they hope to at least make the Play-In Tournament.
Key additions (including re-signs):
Key subtractions:
Pressing question: Are we finally going to see Masai Ujiri tear it all down?
The Raptors seem a little stuck in limbo, and we’ve seen that before with Ujiri’s squad. He usually ends up making a couple of solid moves that don’t involve a massive step back, and then the Raptors surge back. Pascal Siakam doesn’t appear to want to be traded. The O.G. Anunoby trade scenario may be the one that replaces Collins as the most commonly rumored possibility after Atlanta finally traded Collins. They lost VanVleet and replaced him with Schröder. I like a lot of the offseason, but the Raptors still seem unsure of what their identity is moving forward. Perhaps Scottie Barnes has a massive third season to provide some guidance.
Pascal Siakam (Dan Hamilton / USA Today)
21. Indiana Pacers (26)
Key additions (including re-signs):
Key subtractions:
- Oshae Brissett (Boston)
- Chris Duarte (Sacramento)
Pressing question: Did the Pacers quietly have an offseason to believe in?
I wasn’t sure what to make of this whole Indiana Pacers rebuild/retool going into last season. But after the way they competed for most of the season and the additions they made, I’m into this roster quite a bit. Tyrese Haliburton is the real deal, and there’s a great mix of veterans and young players. Rick Carlisle’s patience may be the key to just how much that mixture works to compete now and in the future. This team is surprisingly deep, and there’s enough defense to feel great about both ends of the court. This could be a dangerous Play-In team.
Key additions (including re-signs):
Key subtractions:
Pressing question: Which part of last season was the aberration?
As noted throughout last season’s Power Rankings, the Magic began the season 5-20, then went 29-28 the rest of the way. Did Orlando figure things out for the final two-thirds of the season, or were the Magic able to surprise teams that didn’t take them seriously because of their putrid start? I believe it’s the former, but we still might see a little regression or a slow start before things come back around. Paolo Banchero is a star, and Franz Wagner is a really good second guy. But the East is pretty deep, and Orlando won’t be able to sneak up on people going into this season.
GO DEEPER
Before the NBA, Orlando’s Anthony Black was a highly touted high school football prospect
23. Brooklyn Nets (12)
Key additions (including re-signs):
Key subtractions:
Pressing question: What do the Nets do with this roster construction?
Once again, the Nets are looking at a pretty fun, weird roster with some intriguing young talent. We saw this in a different way the two years before they brought in Kevin Durant and Irving. Mikal Bridges is the biggest part of this team, unless Ben Simmons ends up getting it together and becoming the player he used to be. So … Bridges is the biggest part of this team.
Will they have future luck in bringing free agents to Brooklyn like they did before? Or is this team going to need to eventually move promising young players in exchange for bonafide stars?
24. Chicago Bulls (19)
Key additions (including re-signs):
Key subtractions:
- Patrick Beverley (Philadelphia)
- Marko Simonović (waived)
- Derrick Jones Jr. (free agent)
- Javonte Green (free agent)
Pressing question: Are we going to see the Bulls be able to retool this roster on the fly?
It seems like the Bulls have been trying to move Zach LaVine, and there just isn’t any progress with that. So they’re … essentially running it back with a team that wasn’t nearly good enough the last two seasons. Lonzo Ball is out for the entire year. DeMar DeRozan has been great, but they seem pretty stuck, even with a solid supporting cast. I doubt a teardown happens, but does this team have any kind of ceiling beyond the Play-In Tournament? The front office has to find a pathway to something better, but any potential return for LaVine determines how well that retooling happens.
Tier 6: Tank Adjacent Right Now
25. Houston Rockets (27)
Key additions (including re-signs):
Key subtractions:
- Stephen Silas (fired)
- Daishen Nix (waived)
- TyTy Washington (Oklahoma City)
- Usman Garuba (Oklahoma City)
- KJ Martin (Clippers)
- Josh Christopher (Memphis)
Pressing question: Will all of the Rockets’ moves lead to actual victories and consistency on the court?
To be honest, I have no idea where to put this Rockets squad. This feels both disrespectful and accurate. Adding veterans such as VanVleet and Brooks should help right away. Those are also two players who couldn’t even make 40 percent of their shots last season. There is so much young talent on this roster, but how do they possibly get enough time and reps with the current construction? Udoka eventually figured out the right rotation for Boston in his season there, but this could be a much tougher endeavor. It feels like a squad a year away from actual success.
GO DEEPER
Jabari Smith Jr.’s steps to defensive greatness, from NBA stars who paved the way
26. San Antonio Spurs (29)
Key additions (including re-signs):
Key subtractions:
- Keita Bates-Diop (Phoenix)
- Romeo Langford (free agent)
- Gorgui Dieng (free agent)
Pressing question: At what point do we start expecting the Spurs to win?
After the draft lottery was settled, people were already making comparisons between Wembanyama joining a tanking Spurs team and what happened with Tim Duncan in his rookie season, when the Spurs went 56-26. The difference in those two situations is Duncan was joining up with a 32-year old David Robinson, while Wembanyama is joining Keldon Johnson and Jeremy Sochan. Not quite the same thing. The Spurs could have a really good defense right away, but scoring will be tough. Should we expect this team to be winning within two years? Longer? Should it be right away if Wemby is so good immediately? We’ll see.
27. Portland Trail Blazers (25)
Key additions (including re-signs):
Key subtractions:
- Drew Eubanks (Phoenix)
- Cam Reddish (Lakers)
- Trendon Watford (waived)
Pressing question: How ugly does this rebuild actually get on the court?
Everybody seems sold on Henderson as a franchise guy, but a lot of people around the league seem split on just how good they think Shaedon Sharpe can be. And that might be the difference between how alluring this young core can be and how much it feels like the Blazers need a full teardown after a Lillard trade inevitably happens.
I do like a lot of these young players, and the fit of Anfernee Simons with Henderson and Sharpe will be massive. It just can’t feel like a dumbed down version of the Blazers with CJ McCollum and Lillard. Portland’s front office is good at drafting, and they’ve had it get ugly on the court the last two years when they set out trying to win. At least now there’s a light at the end of the tunnel that isn’t an oncoming train, regardless of the Lillard trade return.
GO DEEPER
Scoot Henderson’s education continues, with a Blazers staff full of point guards
28. Washington Wizards (23)
Key additions (including re-signs):
Key subtractions:
Pressing question: Will this team be sneaky competitive or flat-out bad on the court?
The Wizards decided to punt on mediocrity for a different type of mediocrity. It’s not quite this simplified, but they essentially bailed on the Beal-Morris backcourt in exchange for a Poole-Jones backcourt. It’ll be worse, but maybe more interesting in a way. I’m really intrigued to see what this team looks like with developing talent. They’ve had some bad drafts in the past, but Michael Winger decided to make Coulibaly his first big project, and I’m here for it. There are still enough veterans here to maybe sneak up on some folks, but this feels like an eventual full teardown to try to grab some top talent in the draft.
Key additions (including re-signs):
Key subtractions:
Pressing question: Does LaMelo Ball have the help he needs yet?
Maybe the return of Bridges and addition of Miller will start to spark a proper supporting cast for LaMelo Ball, but the Hornets still don’t seem to have anybody you feel is a definite running mate for him. The Hornets had a lot of problems last year and missed a ton of talent on the court for big stretches. They were also the worst offensive team in the league. It doesn’t make sense that this team was better defensively than offensively. They need Miller to look like a star, especially if Henderson is the real deal in Portland.
Key additions (including re-signs):
Key subtractions:
Pressing question: Does this Pistons accumulation of prospects lead to real progress?
I was very disappointed in the Pistons and how they looked last season. Maybe it was already a precarious balance to find with such a young, inexperienced core if you were hoping to see some wins. Injuries messed up that idea pretty early, and that led to them tanking very early. It just didn’t help them in the lottery. Having Cade Cunningham back should help a ton, and there is a lot of young talent on this roster. Is the Pistons’ core still just potential talent, or can they turn that into some winning?
(Top illustration: John Bradord / The Athletic; photo of Nikola Jokić: Justin Edmonds / Getty Images)