NFL Super Wild Card Weekend 2024 features the Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins colliding on Saturday. This is a rematch from a Week 9 battle that took place in Frankfurt, Germany, where the Chiefs beat the Dolphins, 21-14. Miami has only hit the second half over in eight of their last 18 games. On the other side, Kansas City has hit the fourth quarter under in 17 of their last 20 games.
Kickoff is at 8 p.m. ET in Kansas City. Kansas City is a 4.5-point favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 43.5 in the latest Dolphins vs. Chiefs odds from the SportsLine consensus. Before making any Chiefs vs. Dolphins picks or NFL bets, you need to see what SportsLine expert Larry Hartstein has to say, considering his mastery of picks involving Miami.
A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed working for Pro Football Focus. He tied for 52nd place (out of 1,598 entries) in the 2022 Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest, going 53-34-3 ATS. Those selections form the basis of his weekly SportsLine NFL best bets, which are 69-43-2 since the start of last season, including a 14-4 record the last six weeks.
Most importantly, Hartstein has a read on the pulse of the Dolphins. He is 28-17-1 (+904) on his last 46 NFL picks in games involving Miami. Anyone who has consistently followed him is way up.
Now, Hartstein has set his sights on Dolphins vs. Chiefs and just locked in his picks and NFL predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Chiefs vs. Dolphins:
- Dolphins vs. Chiefs spread: Kansas City -4.5
- Dolphins vs. Chiefs over/under: 43.5 points
- Dolphins vs. Chiefs money line: Kansas City -226, Miami +184
- MIA: Dolphins have hit the 1H Over in 15 of their last 21 games
- KC: Chiefs have hit the 4Q Under in 17 of their last 20 games
- Dolphins vs. Chiefs picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Chiefs can cover
The Chiefs’ ground attack is led by running back Isiah Pacheco. He runs with force but owns the quickness to make defenders miss in open space. He can also be a reliable pass-catcher out of the backfield. The Rutgers product led the team in rushing yards (935) and rushing touchdowns (7) with 244 receiving yards.
Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice have been the main two contributors in the passing game. Kelce continues to be a menace over the middle and causes mismatches on safeties/linebackers. The nine-time Pro Bowl selection led the team in receptions (93) and receiving yards (938). Rice uses his short area quickness to gain separation with ease. The SMU product reeled in a team-high seven touchdowns with 79 catches and 938 receiving yards. See which team to pick here.
Why the Dolphins can cover
The Dolphins have a solid rushing attack that allows the offense to stay balanced. Miami was sixth in the NFL in rushing yards per game (135.8) and tied for first in rushing touchdowns (27). Running back De’Von Achane has elite speed to pair with his vision to fly through the hole. The Texas A&M product logged 103 carries for 800 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. He also snagged 27 passes for 197 yards and three touchdowns.
Receiver Jaylen Waddle (questionable) is another valuable member of the Dolphins offense. Waddle is an exceptional YAC threat with great contact balance. The Alabama product has built a terrific rapport with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. In 2023, Waddle had 72 catches for 1,014 yards and four scores. Additionally, the 2021 first-round pick has gone over 100 receiving yards in three games this season. See which team to pick here.
How to make Dolphins vs. Chiefs picks
Hartstein has analyzed this matchup and is leaning Under the point total, but he has discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. He’s sharing what it is, and which side to back, only at SportsLine.
Who wins Chiefs vs. Dolphins in Saturday’s AFC Wild-Card matchup, and which critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chiefs vs. Dolphins spread to back, all from the expert on a 28-17 roll on picks involving Miami, and find out.
