The Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs will collide during Super Wild Card Weekend of the 2024 NFL playoffs on Saturday. Despite having an up-and-down campaign, Kansas City (11-6) still managed to win the AFC West. Meanwhile, Miami (11-6) locked down the No. 6 seed and finished second in the AFC East. The Dolphins have not won a playoff game since 2000.
Kickoff is at 8 p.m. ET in Kansas City. Kansas City is a 4.5-point favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 44 in the latest Dolphins vs. Chiefs odds from the SportsLine consensus. Before making any Chiefs vs. Dolphins picks or NFL bets, you need to see what SportsLine expert Larry Hartstein has to say, considering his mastery of picks involving Miami.
A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed working for Pro Football Focus. He tied for 52nd place (out of 1,598 entries) in the 2022 Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest, going 53-34-3 ATS. Those selections form the basis of his weekly SportsLine NFL best bets, which are 69-43-2 since the start of last season, including a 14-4 record the last six weeks.
Most importantly, Hartstein has a read on the pulse of the Dolphins. He is 28-17-1 (+904) on his last 46 NFL picks in games involving Miami. Anyone who has consistently followed him is way up.
Now, Hartstein has set his sights on Dolphins vs. Chiefs and just locked in his picks and NFL predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Chiefs vs. Dolphins:
- Dolphins vs. Chiefs spread: Kansas City -4.5
- Dolphins vs. Chiefs over/under: 44 points
- Dolphins vs. Chiefs money line: Kansas City -226, Miami +184
- MIA: Dolphins have hit the 1H Over in 15 of their last 21 games
- KC: Chiefs have hit the 4Q Under in 17 of their last 20 games
- Dolphins vs. Chiefs picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Chiefs can cover
Kansas City’s defense has been one of the most disruptive units in the league. The Chiefs finished the season second in the NFL in total defense (289.8) and fourth in pass defense (176.5). Additionally, they were second in team sacks (57).
Defensive tackle Chris Jones is a dominant force up front. The five-time Pro Bowl selection is tied for first on the team in sacks (10.5) with a team-high 13 tackles for loss. He logged a sack in three straight games to end the regular season. Defensive end George Karlaftis brings speed and burst off the edge. Karlaftis has strong pursuit to track down quarterbacks. The Purdue product recorded 47 total tackles and 10.5 sacks. See which team to pick here.
Why the Dolphins can cover
The Dolphins feature an electric offense with blazing speed on every level. Miami finished the season ranked first in total offense (401.3) and passing offense (265.5). In addition, the Dolphins are second in the league in points per game (29.2). Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has pinpoint accuracy. The 25-year-old led the NFL in passing yards (4,624) and was tied for fifth in passing touchdowns (29). He’s surpassed 300 passing yards in five games this campaign.
Receiver Tyreek Hill remains an elite playmaker who can take the top off of any defense. The eight-time Pro Bowl selection tied for second in receptions (119), but finished the regular season first in receiving yards (1,799) and receiving touchdowns (13). See which team to pick here.
How to make Dolphins vs. Chiefs picks
Hartstein has analyzed this matchup and is leaning Under the point total, but he has discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. He’s sharing what it is, and which side to back, only at SportsLine.
Who wins Chiefs vs. Dolphins in Saturday’s AFC Wild-Card matchup, and which critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chiefs vs. Dolphins spread to back, all from the expert on a 28-17 roll on picks involving Miami, and find out.
