The 2024 NFL Super Wild Card Weekend kicks off Saturday with an AFC showdown between the Cleveland Browns and Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. The Texans (10-7) are led by rookie C.J. Stroud, who will try to become the youngest quarterback to win an NFL playoff game at age 22. Former Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco has sparked the Browns (11-6), who beat the Texans by 14 in Week 16 with Stroud out with a concussion. Flacco led Cleveland to four straight victories before he and several other starters sat out a 31-14 loss to the Bengals last Sunday. The Texans enter this 2024 NFL playoff matchup off a 23-19 victory against the Colts last Saturday.
Saturday’s kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. ET in Houston. The latest Texans vs. Browns odds list Cleveland as a 2.5-point favorite, while the over/under for total points scored is 44.5. Before making any Browns vs. Texans picks or NFL bets, you need to see what SportsLine expert Larry Hartstein has to say, considering his mastery of picks involving Houston.
A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed working for Pro Football Focus. He tied for 52nd place (out of 1,598 entries) in the 2022 Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest, going 53-34-3 ATS. Those selections form the basis of his weekly SportsLine NFL best bets, which are 69-46-2 since the start of last season, including a 14-7 record the past seven weeks.
Most importantly, Hartstein has a strong feel for the Texans, going 42-26-4 (+1344) on his last 72 NFL picks in games involving Houston. Anyone who has followed him is way up.
Now, Hartstein has set his sights on Browns vs. Texans and just locked in his picks and NFL predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Texans vs. Browns:
- Texans vs. Browns spread: Cleveland -2.5
- Texans vs. Browns over/under: 44.5 points
- Texans vs. Browns money line: Cleveland -147, Houston +123
- CLE: Browns are 10-6 against the spread as favorites over the past two seasons
- HOU: Texans are 12-5 ATS at home since the start of last season
- Texans vs. Browns picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Texans vs. Browns live stream: fubo (try for free)
Why the Browns can cover
Quarterback Joe Flacco is 10-5 in the playoffs over his career, going 11-4 against the spread and covering in seven straight. The 38-year-old, named MVP after the Ravens won Super Bowl XLVII, led the NFL with 1,616 passing yards from Weeks 13-17 before sitting out last weekend. His presence has given a boost to Amari Cooper and David Njoku. Njoku led NFL tight ends over the Week 13-17 span with 390 receiving yards, and Cooper was third among all pass-catchers with 485.
The Browns are 10-6-1 ATS in 2023 and have been resilient in overcoming significant injuries all season, in part because they have one of the NFL’s best defenses. The unit allows the fewest yards per game (270.2) and second-fewest per play (4.8). Myles Garrett, the favorite for Defensive Player of the Year, has 14 sacks and four forced fumbles. The Browns have the league’s best defense, yielding 164.7 yards per game, and have 18 interceptions (T-3 in NFL). See which team to pick here.
Why the Texans can cover
Houston is 9-8 ATS and has gone 7-3 ATS in its past 10 AFC matchups. Quarterback C.J. Stroud leads the NFL in passing yards per game (273.9) among qualified players. His 4,108 passing yards are the third-most by a rookie all-time, even though he missed two games with a concussion. Stroud also has thrown just five interceptions, a big reason that Houston has a major advantage in turnovers. The Texans are plus-10 in turnover margin this season, while the Browns are minus-9.
Nico Collins has stepped up for Houston and had a career-high 195 receiving yards last week. The Browns are allowing 29.6 per game in away games, most in the NFL, and are 3-5 on the road. The Texans should be able to put pressure on Flacco to win it. They are sixth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed (96.7 per game), and Cleveland averages just 3.9 per carry (26th). The Texans have 46 sacks, and Derek Stingley Jr. has five interceptions over the past eight games. See which team to pick here.
How to make Browns vs. Texans picks
Hartstein has analyzed this matchup and is leaning Over the point total, but he has discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. He’s sharing what it is, and which side to back, only at SportsLine.
Who wins Browns vs. Texans in Saturday’s AFC Wild-Card matchup, and which critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Browns vs. Texans spread to back, all from the expert on a 42-26 roll on picks involving Houston, and find out.
