Manchester United finally seem to have their man: Bryan Mbeumo is close to hooking up with the Old Trafford side at last.
On Friday afternoon, a string of sources confirmed that a deal that totals €82 million (£71m) has been agreed between the clubs.
It’s taken Man Utd around six weeks to get this far in order to secure their second major arrival of the summer, and even after these long negotiations, questions will be raised firstly about why it took so long to get to this resolution but also over the Red Devils buckling under pressure from Brentford, whose asking price for the player has finally been met.
It’s a big price for the Cameroon international. Indeed, even the initial payment is nearly €35m above Mbeumo’s Estimated Transfer Value (ETV), which sits at €42.7m.
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After weeks of negotiations, it’s a poor outcome for the Reds. According to FootballTransfers’ model, Mbeumo is the single most overpriced footballer in this summer window.
Of all the players who have moved for €50m or more this summer, only three have completed transfers for deals €10m or more in excess of their ETV.
The three WORST €50m+ transfers of the summer
| Name | Move | ETV | Upfront Price | Difference |
| Bryan Mbeumo* | Brentford to Man Utd | €42.7m | €75m | €32.7m |
| Matheus Cunha | Wolves to Man Utd | €60.8m | €74.2m | €13.4m |
| Mohammed Kudus | West Ham to Spurs | €52.7m | €63.8m | €11.1m |
Worryingly for Man Utd, Matheus Cunha is one of the other two. This suggests that the Red Devils have overpaid by more than €40m on the two major deals they have completed.
Why does Mbeumo fall into this category? It’s largely because his numbers last season suggest a short-term overperformance – and that applies for Cunha, too. The pair’s goal return was achieved from a comparatively small xG figure, with history showing only a handful of elite players capable of outperforming this for years on end.
At a time when the Old Trafford side need to be completing smart deals of strong value, it appears that the same familiar weaknesses remain. Mbeumo is the biggest gamble yet.
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