Man United’s Champions League Last-16 Chances Rated by Opta Supercomputer Ahead of Bayern Munich Clash, Newcastle Given Higher Odds of Finishing Second in Group than PSG

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Manchester United’s hopes of reaching the Champions League knockout stage is hanging by a thread ahead of their must-win clash with Bayern Munich tonight.

The Red Devils need to beat Bayern Munich at Old Trafford and hope that Copenhagen and Galatasaray play out a draw in the other game in the group to advance to the next stage. 

Erik ten Hag’s side’s hopes were severely dented after they threw away the lead twice in a 3-3 draw with Galatasaray – with their last-16 destiny now out of their hands. 

This has been reflected in Opta’s latest calculations, with their supercomputer giving United a 9.4 per cent chance of making the next phase.

Newcastle meanwhile face AC Milan on Wednesday, and while they have been given a higher chance (26.1 per cent) to finish second in their group over Paris Saint-Germain (18.4 per cent) – the French giants and Borussia Dortmund are still expected to finish ahead of the Magpies.

Manchester United’s Champions League chances are slim following their 3-3 draw in Turkey

Erik ten Hag's side need to beat Bayern Munich and hope for a draw in the other game

Erik ten Hag’s side need to beat Bayern Munich and hope for a draw in the other game

United are bottom of their group and have been given a 9.4 per cent chance of qualifying

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Borussia Dortmund and PSG have been given a 51.2 and 48.8 per cent chance respectively of topping Group F – while Newcastle can finish no higher than second. 

Eddie Howe’s side will need Dortmund to beat PSG in Germany, and also beat AC Milan at St James’ Park.

A third place finish in their respective groups would mean that Manchester United and Newcastle drop to the Europa League – alongside the likes of Liverpool, Brighton and West Ham. 

Man United have been given a 39 per cent chance of finishing third – higher than that of Galatasaray and Copenhagen. 

However, they have also been given the highest expectation of finishing bottom of their group at 51.6 per cent – which would see them crash out of Europe altogether. 

Newcastle have a 49.2 per cent chance of finishing third in their group, though a defeat to AC Milan would see them finish fourth – which has been given a chance of 26.1 per cent. 

Their chances would have been significantly better if it wasn’t for a controversial penalty which went against them deep into stoppage time during a 1-1 draw with PSG last time out. 

There are two other groups where a place in the last-16 is yet to be finalised.

Opta give Newcastle United a 26.1 per cent chance of making it through to the knockouts

Opta give Newcastle United a 26.1 per cent chance of making it through to the knockouts

Newcastle's hopes would have been significantly improved if it were not for a controversial penalty which went against them deep into stoppage time during a 1-1 draw in France

Newcastle’s hopes would have been significantly improved if it were not for a controversial penalty which went against them deep into stoppage time during a 1-1 draw in France

Porto are heavy favourites to qualify with Barcelona from Group H, though a victory for Shakhtar Donetsk would send the Ukrainians through instead.

Opta’s supercomputer doesn’t give Shakhtar much hope however, with Porto given an 82.7 per cent chance of advancing. 

Braga have a slim chance of reaching the last-16 ahead of reigning Serie A champions Napoli. 

The Portuguese side would need to pick up a shock victory tonight and better the Italian club’s 2-1 victory over Braga from earlier in the group stage – as they would finish level on points. 

Man City and Arsenal have already reached the last-16, and have secured top-spot in their respective groups.

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