As we reach the halfway point of the season, fans have a good idea of which players are hitting the target in front of goal and which are failing to sparkle.
The Premier League top scorers list shows Mohamed Salah and Erling Haaland at the top of the charts on 14 goals each, with Son Heung-min and Dominic Solanke trailing just behind on 12 strikes – but there is more than meets the eye than just goals.
Opta have revealed their list of the bigger overperformering and underperforming finishers this season – and there are some some surprise names in both lists.
Only two players in the Premier League’s top five scorers list have made it onto the rankings for biggest overperformers, showing who is really among the most clinical in the division and who needs to sharpen their finishing abilities.
Mail Sport takes a look through the most over and underperforming finishers in the 23-24 Premier League campaign, based on expected goals.
The biggest overperformers and underperformers in the Premier League this season have been revealed by Opta
BIGGEST xG OVERPERFORMERS
1. Son Heung-min – Tottenham (+4.9 – 7.1xG, 12 goals)
The South Korean has stormed his way to 12 goals for Ange Postecoglou this season and has really stepped up since Harry Kane’s £100m departure for Bayern Munich.
His superb form has seen him net three goals in his last five games, including laying on three assists for his team-mates – seeing him up 4.9 on his xG of 7.1.
Son’s clinical performance shows through spurning just three opportunities classed as ‘big chances missed’ and hitting the woodwork just once.
Tottenham’s Son Heung-min is the biggest overperformer with 12 goals from 7.1xG
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2. Mohammed Kudus – West Ham (+4.1 – 1.9xG, 6 goals)
The midfielder has been one of the most refreshing additions to the top flight this season, scoring six goals and making one assist to become one of the Hammers’ key players in their rebirth after losing Declan Rice to Arsenal.
Kudus, coming straight from an impressive showing at Ajax in the last campaign, has wasted little time making an impression after turning into a pivotal attacking force under David Moyes and managing 4.1 higher than his xG of 1.9.
3. Hwang Hee-chan – Wolves (+4.0 – 6xG, 10 goals)
Another South Korean forward on the list is Hwang, who has lifted Wolves amid their revival under Gary O’Neil this season, firing his way into sixth on the top scorers list in the top flight after reaching double figures in front of goal.
He is four up on his xG of six and has two goals and an assist in his last two games – a significantly improved showing on last season, when he managed just three goals in the whole of the campaign.
4. Jarrod Bowen – West Ham (+3.6 – 7.4xG, 11 goals)
The second Hammers player to make the list, summing up their superb season under David Moyes so far. Bowen has been integral to that, moving past ten goals to aid the club’s cause.
He is 3.6 up on his xG rate of 7.4 and his superb form has seen him net three goals in his last five matches – in addition to an assist in their famous 2-0 win over title chasers Arsenal.
West Ham duo Jarrod Bowen (second right) and Mohammed Kudus (right) are among the overperformers
5. Bernardo Silva – Man City (+3.3 – 1.7xG, 5 goals)
The 29-year-old shows no signs of slowing down after his influential displays for the reigning Premier League champions, already tallying up five goals and four assists in the Premier League.
That’s despite having an xG of just 1.7, proving he is a player who can create moments of magic on his own. He was integral in helping City to a 3-1 win at Everton with a goal and an assist last month and has been one of Guardiola’s most reliable squad members.
BIGGEST xG UNDERPERFORMERS
1. Dominic Calvert-Lewin – Everton (-3.9 – 6.9xG, 3 goals)
Consistency has been hard to come by for the England international, who has just three goals this season from 13 starts under Sean Dyche.
The 26-year-old, who has struggled up front in the last few seasons, has been unable to recapture his impressive form from the 2020-21 campaign – his best so far that saw him net 21 times in all competitions.
He has an expected goals rate of 6.9, meaning he is falling well below expectations.
Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin is the biggest underachieving finisher this season
2. Darwin Nunez – Liverpool (-3.7 – 8.7xG, 5 goals)
This might not come as a surprise to Liverpool fans who have become frustrated with Nunez’s hot and cold displays up front this season.
The £85m Uruguayan has an xG of 8.7, but has only scored five times. A closer look at the stats shows he’s had 58 shots, 24 of which have been on target and a shooting accuracy of 41 per cent.
But in truth he has missed 18 ‘big chances’ – the most in the league – as well as hitting the woodwork five times, and will hope for a better second half of the season.
Liverpool’s Darwin Nunez has missed 18 ‘big chances’ after scoring five from 8.7 expected goals
3. Nicolas Jackson – Chelsea (-3.6 – 10.6xG, 7 goals)
Brought to Stamford Bridge from Villarreal for £31m last summer, the Senegal international has cut a frustrated figure at Chelsea after struggling with the burden of being one of the main goalscoring hopes.
While Christopher Nkunku has been out injured, Jackson has managed seven goals – three of which came in one game against Tottenham – but has perhaps shown he does not have that clinical nature as an out-and-out forward after failing to come good on his 10.6 xG.
He’s missed 12 big chances, the fourth highest amount in the Premier League.
4. Neal Maupay – Brentford (-3.2 – 5.2xG, 2 goals)
Maupay’s struggles in front of goal might be attributed to his inability to get a regular run of games having started six times and come off the bench on eight occasions under Thomas Frank this season.
Having said that, he’s still managed to rack up an expected goals total of 5.2, with a disappointing two goals coming from that.
Maupay’s last goal for the Bees came in a 3-1 win over Luton at the start of last month, with his first of the campaign coming a month earlier in November.
Enzo Fernandez (L) and Nicolas Jackson (R) are two Chelsea players in the bottom end of the ranking by Opta
5. Enzo Fernandez – Chelsea (-2.8 – 4.8xG, 2 goals)
A name on the list that may shock you, but perhaps speaks to Chelsea’s lack of attacking options this season.
Fernandez has been pushing forward from midfield a lot for the Blues this season in order to make an impact in attack, giving him an expected goals tally of 4.8. While Enzo is not expected to contribute too many goals – he’s only scored 20 in his entire career – he has managed to score twice for Chelsea this season.
As the only midfielder on this list – his higher xG rate should be commended as a sign of his workrate to get into the box and make things happen.