LAS VEGAS — The continued ramifications of that 2019 Russell Westbrook for Chris Paul trade have extended into this summer. The Thunder’s theft — two first-rounders and two first-round swaps routed from Houston to Oklahoma City with Paul — included a 2024 top-four protected pick.
That isn’t just an extra bit of valuable ammo for the Thunder in their accelerating rebuild. It’s also an extra slice of motivation for the Rockets to compete this upcoming season, edging up the standings as far as possible to lower the value of that outgoing pick, at least for the optics.
Houston’s organizational obsession with jamming fast forward on its reconstruction wasn’t tough to track in July. The Rockets used their cap space to throw market overpays at Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks and Jeff Green. They tried for Brook Lopez but missed. They traded away a few of their recent first-rounders, including TyTy Washington Jr. and Usman Garuba, who are now on the Thunder, to generate space for veterans. Everything appears about the now in Houston, the unspoken edict for their current regime to end the playoff drought.
It’s in notable contrast to the team on the opposite side of that 2019 Westbrook for Paul-and-picks swap. The Thunder, like the Rockets, have missed the playoffs three straight seasons. Their climb back began at basically an identical starting point. The Thunder entered this summer in a more reasonable position than Houston to speed up the process. They have an established star in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a young core that’s tasted winning together. They were a 40-win play-in team last season and came within a night in Minnesota of stealing the eighth seed.
But GM Sam Presti used his cap space differently than the Rockets. The Thunder absorbed bad contracts via trade to again bolster the future. They accepted Dāvis Bertāns ($17 million next season, $5 million guaranteed the following) to move up two spots in the draft to grab Cason Wallace. They took on Victor Oladipo ($9.4 million expiring) for two second-rounders. Rudy Gay ($6.5 million expiring) was attached to the Garuba and Washington trade.
Wallace must be an obvious hit for the Bertāns trade not to look like an overpay. A pair of extra second-rounders for the Thunder is similar to what a pair of extra $100 bills is to a millionaire. Gay, Oladipo and eventually Bertāns profile as buyout candidates on an overstuffed roster. Garuba and Washington have talent but appear to be blocked by the group of advanced prospects ahead of them. So, it certainly wasn’t a summer haul in OKC.
But that’s by design, a double down on patience from a Presti front office and Thunder ownership group that has signaled plans for a true slow build from the moment they hit eject on the Westbrook and Paul George era. They’re keeping their books clean to eventually pay their homegrown talent. They’ve avoided adding veteran free agents who block youth from getting the needed developmental minutes. An extended title-contention window on the back side of this decade holds priority over substantial change in the immediate to leap a few pegs in the 2024 conference standings.
That isn’t to say they won’t look a bit different next season. Their backcourt will include Wallace and Vasilije Micić, a former Euroleague MVP who signed for three years and $23.5 million. They’ll back up Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey. Micić is a creative passer and an older, polished point guard. Wallace is a perimeter pest, steady presence and shot it well in summer league, though his jumper remains the biggest long-term question mark.
But the largest puzzle piece set to debut is Chet Holmgren. The Thunder found a way to finish 13th in defensive rating last season but still gave up nearly 51 paint points per game (17th) and blocked the ninth-fewest shots. They often went small and didn’t deploy a true rim protector.
Holmgren — drafted second in 2022, the most valuable selection of this rebuild — has the potential to be one of the league’s best rim protectors, while also maintaining the type of pace and space this Thunder offense desires because of his skill and shooting.
The prized rim protector missed all of last season because of a Lisfranc injury to his right foot. He just competed in four summer league games this past week. He said the foot feels fully healthy, and the film would indicate a shot blocker flying around without limitation or fear.
Holmgren had 14 blocks in those four games, done in a variety of impressive ways. Let’s split those ways into four categories.
Here is the chasedown version. Holmgren begins the clip under his own hoop and behind the play after he didn’t get an offensive rebound. Watch him track the guard out in front him, hustle into the frontcourt, time the floater and whack it off the backboard. This is one of his two chasedown blocks in summer league.
Here he is against a pair of quicker opponents coming downhill at him. The first is in the pick-and-roll with Wallace as the guard defender on Jaden Hardy. Holmgren walls off the lob, baits the quick layup attempt and blocks it off Hardy’s head out of bounds. The second is in isolation. He stands up against a spin move and wipes away a hook.
Two of Holmgren’s 14 blocks were on 3s. This is the more impressive of those two. David Roddy, a second-year power forward expected to be in the Grizzlies’ rotation next season, gets Holmgren on a switch and tries to glide into a simple stepback, believing he has the space. He doesn’t. Holmgren crunches it.
Then, there’s your traditional weak side rim protection. Holmgren clearly isn’t afraid to get dunked on (a must-possess mindset for the best shot blockers) because he came over and challenged a handful of pretty aggressive dunk attempts last week. Here are two.
Here are two more of a similar variety. This is where he can be a transformative force for the Thunder’s defense. If he can regularly come weak side and erase shots at the rim in this physical of a fashion early in his career, opponents will quickly adjust and the overall shot chart against OKC will move further from the rim and less efficient. The second one here is a two-hand tomahawk.
One of the biggest questions hovering over the Thunder the next few seasons will be how all this young talent fits together. Are the skills duplicative, clashing or complementary?
There might be some overlap in the backcourt with Gilgeous-Alexander and Giddey. But the overall puzzle appears like it’ll fit. The projected starting lineup is Gilgeous-Alexander, Giddey, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams and Holmgren. Dort is the type of offensive complement and high-level individual defender who can stitch a lineup together. Williams can do it all, a versatile wing who fills various roles and may have star potential. Then, there’s the idealized version of Holmgren, clogging the floor on one end while stretching it on the other — a modern center.
But the best teams have variability. Holmgren, still skinny and likely to get shoved around by the league’s bigger centers, needs (and appears to want) a chunk of his time at the power forward. That’s where Jaylin Williams is such a valuable find.
The Thunder grabbed him 34th in 2022. He’s a 6-foot-10, 245-pound big with an under-the-rim strength and skill combo that pairs well with Holmgren. Williams made 40.7 percent of his 3s as a rookie (113 attempts), had 76 assists and led the NBA in charges drawn. When he is on the floor with Holmgren, he will guard the centers. I asked Holmgren after a recent summer league game what that does for him.
“It’s good because it allows my length to be found in the game in different ways,” Holmgren said. “When he’s at the five, he’s in (screen) coverage more, and I’m able to kind of move around and roam the court a little more on defense, be the low man in help and be able to come over for blocks if somebody gets beat or use my length in the passing lanes and as an on-ball defender.
“On offense it kind of allows me to be in the action a little more off the dribble. Or it allows us to be able to have actions going on both sides, you know, when he moves the ball. It just opens up different things. It’s not a completely different game, but when he’s out there, it helps me.”
Growing pains are ahead for Holmgren and the Thunder. He has perimeter skills and the desire to explore his capabilities as an individual scorer and playmaker. But he can be turnover prone in traffic and will be physically tested like never before against NBA length, strength and smarts. It could be a push-and-pull for when Holmgren should attack, especially when he’s on the floor with Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams.
“Not trying to drive the trigger when when somebody is loaded,” Holmgren said. “(That’s) the middle of the floor. Especially when we’re five out and there’s a bigs standing at the elbow. So, I just got to recognize that sooner and understand to, you know, get off the ball (and get the) action to the opposite side or just figure out something other than, you know, drive through two people.”
These are lessons the Thunder want their entire young core to learn the next few seasons as they take small steps toward contention. They need as much data as quick as possible because decisions aren’t as far away as they may appear. The Thunder currently have four first-round picks in the 2024 draft and 10 in the next three seasons. Roster and rotation spots aren’t infinite. One player in, one player out.
At some point a consolidation trade is necessary. They have the type of war chest that, for example, would appeal to a team like the Blazers in their current Damian Lillard predicament. But they keep signaling that the timing isn’t quite right for them yet. Presti isn’t hitting fast forward.
(Top photo: Chris Gardner / Getty Images)
