The 2024 NFC Championship Game arrives on Sunday with a headline-grabbing matchup at Levi’s Stadium. The No. 1 seed San Francisco 49ers will take on the No. 3 seed Detroit Lions with a trip to Super Bowl 58 in the balance. The 49ers knocked off the Green Bay Packers in the Divisional Round after a 12-5 performance during the regular season. The Lions were also 12-5 this year and advanced to this point with back-to-back playoff victories over the Los Angeles Rams and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Detroit is seeking its first-ever Super Bowl appearance.
Kickoff is at 6:30 p.m. ET in Santa Clara. For this game, SportsLine consensus lists the 49ers as 6.5-point favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 51 in the latest Lions vs. 49ers odds. Before you make any Lions vs. 49ers picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the conference championship round of the 2024 NFL playoffs on an incredible 184-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 38-21 roll on top-rated picks since Week 7 of last season and nailed seven straight top-rated picks entering the 2024 NFL playoffs.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has set its sights on Lions vs. 49ers and just locked in its picks and NFL playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Lions vs. 49ers:
- Lions vs. 49ers spread: 49ers -6.5
- Lions vs. 49ers over/under: 51 points
- Lions vs. 49ers money line: 49ers -297, Lions +238
- DET: The Lions are 7-2 against the spread in road games
- SF: The 49ers are 3-6 against the spread in home games
- Lions vs. 49ers picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Lions vs. 49ers live stream: fubo (try for free)
Why the Lions can cover
The Lions continue to enjoy tremendous offensive success. After a potent regular season, Detroit is averaging 27.5 points per game in postseason action. The Lions lead the NFL Playoffs in completing 74.3% of passes behind Jared Goff, and Detroit has not committed a turnover in two playoff games. Detroit is keyed by very strong balance, and the Lions scored 27.1 points per game during the regular season. That ranked in the top five of the NFL, and Detroit put up 2.41 points per offensive possession. Detroit became only the second team in the history of the NFL to have four players with at least ten touchdowns, and the Lions are also prolific in eating up yardage.
Detroit was in the top five of the league in total yards per game (394.8), total yards per drive (35.9), and yards per play (5.9) this season. The Lions also ranked in the top five of the league with 375 first downs, and Detroit has a potential edge on third down against San Francisco. Dan Campbell’s team converted more than 41% of third down chances during the regular season, while San Francisco ranked only No. 24 in the NFL in third down defense. The Lions are also effective at capitalizing near the goal line, turning 64.1% of trips to the red zone into touchdowns in 2023. See which team to pick here.
Why the 49ers can cover
San Francisco is known for its offensive brilliance under Kyle Shanahan, and the 49ers were productive across the board during the regular season. That offensive effectiveness helped the 49ers to out-score opponents by more than 10 points per game, and San Francisco is capable of exploding on offense at any moment, particularly with All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey as the team’s fulcrum on the ground. In addition to the offense, however, San Francisco sports the better defense in this matchup by a clear statistical margin.
The 49ers allowed only 17.5 points per game during the regular season, ranking No. 3 in the NFL. Opponents also averaged fewer than 305 total yards per game against the 49ers, and San Francisco yielded only 5.0 yards per play across 17 games. The 49ers are both solid and opportunistic, with the team creating a turnover on 15.5% of possessions and ranking in the top five of the NFL with 28 takeaways. That includes a league-leading 22 interceptions this season, and the 49ers match up well against Detroit’s physical offensive style on the ground. San Francisco gave up only 89.7 rushing yards per game in the regular season, No. 3 in the NFL, and the 49ers rounded out their defensive profile by allowing only 6.4 yards per pass attempt and producing 48 sacks. See which team to pick here.
How to make Lions vs. 49ers picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the point total, with no pass-catcher projected to generate more than 85 receiving yards. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Lions vs. 49ers in the 2024 NFC Championship Game, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Lions vs. 49ers spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the model that is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, and find out.
