A nice week for us, as we went 11-5 ATS and 13-3 SU. However, we only went 3-2 on our top five ATS picks, since the Dallas Cowboys didn’t cover vs. the Detroit Lions, and then the Philadelphia Eagles were shocked by the Arizona Cardinals. Maybe I shouldn’t say “shocked” since Philly has looked bad as of late.
Week 18 is fun, because you can’t really rely on advanced statistics or ATS records to make your picks. It’s more like, “Will Sam Darnold out-duel Carson Wentz” or “Can the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Baltimore Ravens’ backups?” Here’s to the final week of the regular season.
Odds courtesy of SportsLine consensus
Top five picks ATS record: 40-41-4
Overall ATS record: 119-126-11
Straight up record: 156-100
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
Following a controversial loss to the Cowboys last week, Dan Campbell is more energized than usual. He told reporters this week he’s got “controlled fury,” and that he’s got “pure octane right now.” He also said the plan is to play the starters this weekend, even though there’s just a slim chance Detroit can improve its seeding.
The Vikings were just blown out on their home field by the Green Bay Packers, and Kevin O’Connell can’t decide on a starting quarterback. Nick Mullens is back in the starting lineup, who threw four picks against the Lions just a couple weeks ago.
The main reason I like the Lions to cover this week is because their defense is coming off of a solid performance. Holding the Cowboys to 20 points at home is pretty wild, as it marked a season-low for Dallas. Before last week, the Cowboys had scored at least 30 points in every home game this year.
The pick: Lions -3.5
Projected score: Lions 27-17
Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5) at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Titans are 0-5 ATS and 0-5 SU vs. divisional opponents this year, are coming off of a matchup in which they scored just three points and recorded 187 yards of total offense and quarterback Will Levis is banged-up. Sure, Mike Vrabel could rally the troops and play spoiler, but the Jags need this win to clinch the division. It’s a big deal.
Trevor Lawrence is dealing with a shoulder injury, but I fully expect him to suit up. The Titans and Jags last played back in November, with Jacksonville winning, 34-14. The game was never close, as the Jags scored the first 27 points of the game.
The pick: Jaguars -5.5
Projected score: Jaguars 23-14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Buccaneers were upset by the rival New Orleans Saints last week, and need a win against Carolina to clinch the division. The Panthers are coming off of a deflating 26-0 loss to the Jaguars, and surely are excited to finish out the season. Tampa Bay is 7-1 ATS on the road this season, which is the second-best mark in the NFL.
The pick: Buccaneers -4.5
Projected score: Buccaneers 17-10
If you want a more analytical approach to your NFL picks, then I highly suggest that you check out the SportsLine Projection Model, which has been on fire this year. Check it out if you want to know which side to bet for every game in Week 18.
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-1.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Jets are not very good, and haven’t won a game on the road since Oct. 29. The Patriots on the other hand sent Russell Wilson to the bench with an upset victory in Denver on Christmas Eve, and kept things close with the Bills in Buffalo last week despite four turnovers. New England has won 15 straight games against New York, and has covered the spread in six straight.
The Jets have a 26% third-down conversion rate (worst since the 2015 Rams), a 34% red-zone conversion rate (worst since the 2012 Chiefs) and have scored just 17 offensive touchdowns (fewest since that same 2012 Chiefs team). Give me the Patriots, especially with them at home.
The pick: Patriots -1.5
Projected score: Patriots 17-10
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-4)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
It’s the battle of the backups in San Francisco. Who are you taking? Carson Wentz or Sam Darnold? Give me the former No. 2 overall pick. Just kidding. I know they both were picked second overall. The 49ers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Rams, who almost lost to the New York Giants last Sunday. This pick comes down to me liking the 49ers backups more at home.
The pick: 49ers -4
Projected score: 49ers 24-16
Other Week 18 picks
Steelers 23-20 over Ravens (+4)
Texans (-1) 27-24 over Colts
Bengals (-7) 25-16 over Browns
Saints (-3) 24-20 over Falcons
Seahawks (-2.5) 27-23 over Cardinals
Bears (+3) 23-21 over Packers
Raiders (-3) 20-16 over Broncos
Chargers (-3.5) 24-18 over Chiefs
Eagles 27-26 over Giants (+5)
Cowboys (-13) 35-20 over Commanders
Bills (-3) 29-24 over Dolphins
