Below is a look at the league’s most extreme run funnel and pass funnel defenses through Week 10 — teams being consistently attacked on the ground or through the air regardless of game script.
Having an understanding of which defenses are being bludgeoned via the rush or pass should help us identify matchups that may be better than we think in Week 11.
Pass Funnel Defenses
San Francisco 49ers
Probably you’re tired of me reiterating that teams are all but abandoning the run against the Niners this season. It’s a combination of game script issues and a pass defense that is far more exploitable than the team’s rush defense.
Only the Eagles are a more extreme pass funnel than the Niners on the season and over the past four weeks. Sure, the Jaguars were technically 4 percent under their expected drop back rate against San Francisco in Week 10, but considering they dropped back on 73 percent of their offensive plays, I would count Jacksonville’s approach as pass heavy. The Bengals in Week 8 were 8 percent over their expected drop back rate against the 49ers and Minnesota was at 12 percent in Week 7. You get it.
The 49ers haven’t exactly shut down opposing passing attacks. They’re allowing the 12th highest completion rate over expected and are middle of the pack in EPA allowed per drop back since Week 6.
What it means for Week 11: The Bucs, to their credit, have accepted their fate as a pass-first team mostly because Rachaad White and Tampa’s other backs are so brutally ineffective as rushers. The Bucs seem like they want to win some games this season, so they’ve passed at an almost stunning clip.
Tampa Bay has been at or above its expected drop back rate in seven of their past eight games. From Week 4-8, when the Bucs were forced into back-and-forth game scripts, they were 9 percent over their expected drop back rate. That’s Vikings and Commanders-level pass heaviness.
Target volume should be there for both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin if the Bucs — like most Niners opponents — are forced to air it out in Week 11. Evans is dominating targets and air yards like you might think, as I outlined in this week’s Regression Files, and Godwin has had some of the NFL’s worst luck inside the ten yard line this year. A bump in pass volume for Baker Mayfield should make him viable as a 12-team league streaming option and makes Cade Otton — who has logged more pass routes than all but five tight ends this year — somewhat interesting for fantasy purposes.
One last tidbit: 71.5 percent of touchdowns scored against the 49ers this season have come through the air — the fourth highest rate in the NFL.
Detroit Lions
The Lions, even without a stout rush defense, have turned into a predictable pass funnel defense over the past couple months. Detroit is the NFL’s fourth most extreme pass funnel.
Over the course of the season, Detroit is a middling secondary by almost every measure. But since Week 5, they’ve given up the seventh highest EPA per drop back as teams find success against the Lions coverage unit. No team has allowed a higher yards per pass attempt than the Lions over the past four weeks.
What it means for Week 11: Justin Fields could see a somewhat pass-happy game script in his return to the Bears lineup this Sunday. Though Chicago is 3 percent under its expected drop back rate this season, they were at or above that rate in four of their first five games. The results were catastrophic, of course. But that’s neither here nor there.
I see D.J. Moore as a screaming regression candidate (the good kind) against the pass-funnel Lions. This game’s Vegas total creeping upward — from 45 on Monday to 48 on Friday — at least hints at potential for a back-and-forth affair. Moore drafters can hope so, anyway.
Run Funnel Defenses
Cleveland Browns
The Brownies keep popping up in this space because, well, everyone leans toward the run against Cleveland in a desperate attempt to avoid game-destroyer Myles Garrett and a pretty solid Browns secondary. Only the Colts and Jets are more extreme run funnels than Cleveland through Week 10.
The Browns profiles as a boom-bust rush defense. They enter Week 11 with the league’s highest stuff rate and the highest rate of missed tackles per rush. They’ve allowed the sixth highest yards after contact per rush attempt thanks to a handful of long runs this season. Forty-two percent of the touchdowns scored against the Browns have come through the air, the fourth lowest rate in the NFL.
What it means for Week 11: We’re back to emphasizing the Steelers backfield for a third straight week. This game sets up perfectly for a mass of rush attempts against the run-funnel Browns, as the Steelers enter Arthur Smith territory with their crushingly run heavy ways. Over their past six games, Pittsburgh is 6 percent under its expected drop back rate. Narrow that to the past two outings and it’s -12 percent.
It didn’t matter a whole lot that Jaylen Warren was named the team’s starter in Week 10. Najee Harris still out-carried Warren (by one) and saw most of the green zone opportunities. Facing a Browns team quarterbacked by fifth round rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson, there’s (almost) no chance game script gets away from the Steelers this week. That should result in 15 touches for both Warren and Harris.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are among the five most extreme run funnels in the league this season. That’s even more pronounced from Week 7-10: Only the Jets are a more extreme run funnel than Arizona over that stretch.
The Cards are allowing the sixth highest yards before contact per rush, a metric that points to the potential for long runs. It makes sense then that Arizona has the league’s third lowest stuff rate. Not surprisingly, they allow the league’s fourth highest EPA per rushing attempt. The Cardinals practically invite teams to establish it against them week after week.
What it means for Week 11: The Texans, despite having an extraordinary rookie quarterback, want very much to be a run-first, conservative offense. They’ve been under their expected drop back rate in seven of their past eight outings. Even in their Week 10 shootout with Cincinnati, the Texans were 5 percent below their expected drop backs rate.
You know what comes next: Devin Singletary Szn should continue unabated with Dameon Pierce unlikely to play in Week 11. Fresh off 30 rushes and two targets against the Bengals, Singletary should have a similar workload against Arizona. I see Singeltary as a must-start in 12-team formats. Find a way to get him into your lineup against a vulnerable run funnel defense.
