Arsenal are almost guaranteed a top five finish while Aston Villa have just a 34 per cent chance of qualifying for next season’s Champions League, according to Opta’s latests statistics.
The Gunners, who crashed out of the competition to Paris Saint-Germain mid-week, sit in second with 67 points, albeit 15 behind already crowned champions Liverpool, and have a 99.7 per cent chance of qualifying, Opta’s estimations say.
They travel to Arne Slot’s side on Sunday before facing Newcastle and Southampton and know just two points, barring a freak goal difference swing, will secure a top five finish.
There will be six English teams in the Champions League and nine in European competitions next season.
But Manchester City have made life more difficult for themselves after they slumped to a goalless stalemate at lowly Southampton.
Pep Guardiola says his men will have to ‘fight until the end’ and face three cup finals after dropping two points.
Opta has given Aston Villa just a 34.1 per cent of reaching the Champions League next season
Pep Guardiola says Man City have three cup finals left as they bid to finish in the top five
Aston Villa secured a crucial 1-0 away victory against Bournemouth thanks to Ollie Watkins
‘I didn’t expect differently from a month ago, that it’s a fight until the end,’ he said.
With a FA Cup final against Crystal Palace looming, they could drop out of the Champions League spots before they play in the league again.
But the good news for City, who have a comparably strong goal difference to their rivals, is that Opta has recorded them as having a 91.3 per cent of qualifying for the competition.
Meanwhile, Villa have been given a paltry 34.1 per cent, the lowest of the six teams fighting for the final four spots.
Unai Emery’s side are currently level with Newcastle and Chelsea on 63 points but have played one more game and have a considerably worse goal difference.
They host Tottenham before travelling to Manchester United – two sides who have their sights set on Europa League glory rather than domestic success.
And former midfielder Lee Hendrie believes their favourable fixture list could see Villa pip their rivals.
Speaking on Sky Sports, Hendrie, who spent 13 years at Villa Park, said: ‘I think the other thing you need to take into consideration is this Spurs and Manchester United games for Villa – what are they playing for?
Chelsea face Real Betis in the Europa Conference League final after beating Djurgårdens
Newcastle have a 69.3 per cent chance of qualifying for the Champions League says Opta
‘There’s nothing else that they can play for. So do they play, you know, a part team where, you know, he’s just keeping – both managers keeping players fit for the final?
‘I think that’s the other thing that you’ve got to look at from a Villa point of view. Obviously, I’ve got my Villa cap on again, but, you know, I’m thinking that’s why I feel that Villa are really in a key position.’
Villa, who were knocked out of the Champions League by finalists PSG, can record a maximum of 69 points this season.
Asked by Jamie Redknapp if they could hit that tally, Hendrie replied: ‘I think they do. I think, personally, home form has been brilliant at Villa Park. That’ll be – again, I said – three cup finals and it starts again on Friday against Spurs, and then I feel that they go away to Manchester United and take all three points.’
Redknapp added: ‘And obviously with Tottenham and Manchester United with a huge Europa League cup final, their priority is right there.
‘And especially with other teams taking points off each other, it does feel like they’re giving themselves a real chance, and they’ve just got to make sure they take care of points at home.’
Chelsea boast a 67.9 per cent chance of securing a Champions League place. They have a challenging run in against Newcastle, Manchester United and Nottingham Forest.
A return to Europe’s elite competition would be a step in the right direction in Enzo Maresca’s first season, with the Blues currently competing in the Conference League.
Arsenal were dumped out of the Champions League by PSG but are assured of a top five finish
Chelsa are given a 67.9 per cent chance of qualifying for the Champions League next season
They play Real Betis in the final on May 28 as they look to become the first club to win all three European competitions.
It could have been so much better for Chelsea, who were just four points behind leaders Liverpool at Christmas.
Newcastle host Chelsea on Sunday before a trip to the Emirates. They play David Moyes’s Everton on the final day. They have a 69.3 per cent chance of Champions League qualification according to Opta.
While Forest, who haven’t played in the competition since they were reigning champions in 1980, are ranked at 37.7 per cent.
They take on Leicester in an East Midlands derby before games against West Ham and Chelsea.
