Andy Farrell will have had the date circled on his calendar from the moment he was appointed head coach of the British and Irish Lions.
On Thursday afternoon, he finally names his Lions squad for the tour of Australia in the summer.
Given Farrell’s allegiance to a dominant Ireland team, there will be a core of players from the Emerald Isle.
But Scotland and England should also have plenty of representation, while a struggling Wales side can realistically hope for two or three picks at best.
Farrell’s had to contend with a lot of injury issues. For starters, Ireland back-rower Caelan Doris, who was set to captain the Lions, looks likely to miss out after undergoing shoulder surgery.
Many of those on the casualty list are Scots, most notably Sione Tuipulotu, Blair Kinghorn, Zander Fagerson, Huw Jones and Duhan van der Merwe.
Sione Tuipulotu, above left, and Huw Jones could be perfect double act for the Lions
Pierre Schoeman is among the Scotland players who have put up their hand for selection
Maro Itoje looks set to be named Lions captain if Caelan Doris doesn’t make the squad
With all that in mind, I’ve cast my eye over some of the key selection calls and picked my own 40-man squad featuring 14 from Ireland, 14 from England, nine from Scotland, and three from Wales.
Front row – (9) – Andrew Porter (Ire), Pierre Schoeman (Sco), Ellis Genge (Eng), Dan Sheehan (Ire), Jamie George (Eng), Ronan Kelleher (Ire), Tadhg Furlong (Ire), Will Stuart (Eng), Zander Fagerson (Sco).
The Lions are blessed with options at tighthead. Tadhg Furlong and Zander Fagerson would have been the Test favourites a few months ago, but Will Stuart has been a revelation for England and Bath this season.
Dan Sheehan looks certain to start at hooker, with Jamie George and Ronan Kelleher offering solid experience and back-up.
At loosehead, Andrew Porter’s all-action style will probably see him get the nod ahead of Pierre Schoeman and Ellis Genge.
Locks – (5) – Mario Itoje (Eng, captain) Joe McCarthy (Ire), James Ryan (Ire), Tadhg Beirne (Ire), Courtney Lawes (Eng).
England captain Itoje will be the man to lead the Lions if Doris is ruled out. His combination with Tadhg Beirne would bring lineout expertise, power in the loose, and a good all-round rugby skillset.
McCarthy and Ryan would push them and be ready if either suffered an injury or dip in form.
Rory Darge could have done enough to get the nod for selection from Andy Farrell
Finn Russell looks set to be the Lions’ first pick at fly half during the Australian tour
Lawes is still playing well enough for Brive in France to warrant selection. The fact he and Beirne can also cover six would allow Farrell to pick more specialist opensides in the back-row unit, as well as having more lineout options.
Back row – (9) – Josh van der Flier (Ire), Ben Earl (Eng), Rory Darge (Sco), Henry Pollock (Eng), Tom Curry (Eng), Jac Morgan (Wal), Jack Conan (Ire), Sam Underhill (Eng), Taulupe Faletau (Wal).
The toughest area of the team to pick. Doris is the big miss here. He’s a machine and would have been a great Lions captain.
With reports suggesting he could be out for four to six months, it’s hard to see him making it.
Pollock is the bolter. Despite only having one England cap, he’s forced his way into Farrell’s plans and was outstanding for Northampton in their Champions Cup semi-final win away at Leinster.
I’ve gone with a lot of specialist opensides – Van der Flier, Darge, Pollock, Morgan and Underhill, who is now back to his very best. That’s offset by Lawes and Beirne being able to cover six if needed, with Curry likely to be the Test six. Conan, Earl and Faletau will fight it out for the No 8 jersey.
Scrum-half – (3) – Jamison Gibson-Park (Ire), Tomos Williams (Wal), Alex Mitchell (Eng).
This was one of the more straightforward positions. Gibson-Park will be the Test nine, ably supported by Williams and Mitchell.
Alas, I expect Ben White to be the main casualty here. He just hasn’t done enough this season. His form has been patchy for Scotland and he’s been in and out of Toulon team.
Zander Fagerson would normally be a first pick but his injury is a major anxiety for Lions
Duhan van der Merwe looks like going to Australia but could be restricted to midweek team
Fly-half – (3) – Finn Russell (Sco), Fin Smith (Eng), George Ford (Eng).
Whether Johnny Sexton thinks he’s ‘flashy’ or not, Finn Russell is still the best man to start at 10. With all the attacking talent and firepower in the backs, he could ignite the series.
Fin Smith was brilliant for Northampton against Leinster and will be selected. In that same game, Sam Prendergast didn’t do himself any favours. This tour is probably just a year too soon for him. There’s a nagging concern that Smith and Prendergast are still too young when it comes to the Lions. You can’t take both as back-ups to Russell.
I’ve a feeling George Ford might just sneak in. He’s a proven and reliable operator whose experience would complement Russell and Smith.
Owen Farrell is in the mix but he’s had an injury-hit season with Racing 92. He also hasn’t played Test rugby since the 2023 World Cup. It would be a huge call for Farrell to pick his son.
Centres – (4) – Bundee Aki (Ire), Sione Tuipulotu (Sco), Huw Jones (Sco), Garry Ringrose (Ire).
So long as the ‘Huwipulotu’ combination are fit, they deserve to go alongside Irish duo of Aki and Ringrose.
Scotland’s Tom Jordan could have forced his way in here and he would have brought value given his ability to play centre, full-back and fly-half. But the fact that Marcus Smith can do all of that as well will go against him. I expect Smith to go as a specialist 15 with the ability to cover elsewhere.
Back Three – (7) – Hugo Keenan (Ire), Blair Kinghorn (Sco), Duhan van der Merwe (Sco), Darcy Graham (Sco), James Lowe (Ire), Marcus Smith (Eng), Tommy Freeman (Eng).
Kinghorn is another of the Scotland contingent who’s picked up an injury recently. There’s also the added complication that the club season runs on for so long in France with Toulouse. But, if the Toulouse man is fit and available, I would have him ahead of Keenan as the Test full-back, with James Lowe and Tommy Freeman on the wings.
Sadly for Scotland, that would leave Darcy Graham and Duhan van der Merwe playing in the midweek team. With 15 tries in his last 10 games for club and country, Freeman is red-hot. He’s one of the form wingers on the planet right now and scored a first-half hat-trick for Northampton against Leinster, as well as a tries in each of England’s five games in the Six Nations. On current form, he has to play.
